# DemandLoom — Demand Forecasting Studio

> Synthetic demand forecasting with chronological model selection, holdout diagnostics and uncertainty bands. Precomputed browser demonstration; not live enterprise forecasting or investment modelling.

- Canonical URL: https://mkgrow.co.business/
- Methodology & Equations: https://mkgrow.co.business/methodology/
- Interactive Browser Runtime: https://mkgrow.co.business/run/
- Author & Root Entity: Mohammad Rezwan Khan, PhD (https://mrkhan.co.technology/#person)
- Ecosystem Directory: https://mklab.co.technology/
- Knowledge Graph JSON-LD: https://mkgrow.co.business/knowledge-graph.jsonld

## Governing Mathematical Formulation & Units
- Formula: `MAE = (1/H) Σ |y_t − ŷ_t|; RMSE = sqrt((1/H) Σ (y_t − ŷ_t)²); WAPE (%) = (Σ |y_t − ŷ_t| / Σ |y_t|) × 100; Scenario Projection ŷ_scen(t) = ŷ_selected(t) × (1 + s/100)`
- Units: Demand in hourly synthetic units; horizon H in hours (12 h to 48 h); scenario adjustment s in percent (%); error metrics in demand units and WAPE in %.

## Reproducible Worked Example
Case 1 (56-day synthetic history, seed=17, H=12 h horizon, -15% demand scenario): Rolling 3-fold validation selects Seasonal Persistence (selection MAE = 28.47) over Moving Average and Linear Trend. On the 12-hour holdout window, MAE = 25.10 units, RMSE = 33.82 units, Bias = -16.54 units, and WAPE = 1.97%.

## Benchmark Table
| Model Candidate | Fold 1 MAE | Fold 2 MAE | Fold 3 MAE | Selection MAE | Holdout MAE (12h) | Holdout RMSE | Holdout WAPE (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Seasonal Persistence | 31.11 | 29.29 | 24.99 | 28.47 | 25.10 | 33.82 | 1.97% |
| Trailing Moving Average | 42.18 | 39.85 | 36.40 | 39.48 | 37.90 | 45.12 | 2.98% |
| Damped Linear Trend | 35.60 | 33.14 | 29.80 | 32.85 | 30.45 | 38.90 | 2.39% |

## 5-Domain Core Authority Ecosystem
1. Hub & Authority: https://mrkhan.co.technology/ (Mohammad Rezwan Khan, PhD - BESS QA/QC & Energy R&D)
2. Interactive Course & Twin: https://khanlab.co.technology/ (Datacenter Power Systems & What-If Simulator)
3. Microgrid Research: https://mkgrid.co.technology/ (HelioForge Energy Lab - Hybrid Energy Research)
4. Synthetic Energy Trading: https://mktrade.co.business/ (ZephyrTrade - Wind-Market Synthetic Backtesting)
5. Utility & Tool Suite: https://mklab.co.technology/ (MKLab - 68 Free Browser Engineering & Planning Apps)